概率
時間有著不可逆性,除非人類發明了時光機,否則,時間就這麼在我們身邊線性流動著。
假想我們生活在一條不知道長度的繩子上,繩子上面是時間的刻度,在每一個時間點都有一個我們。我們衹能回頭看過去每個片段的我們,就如同打遊戲衹要走過的區域都是可見的,而眼前即將去的那些地方都是黑色的。你不知道今天出門會遇到什麼,也不知道別人接下來會怎麼對你,這幾乎就是一切焦慮的來源。
人類為什麼喜歡算命,為什麼會相信星座的運勢,其本質就是想瞭解處於繩子前方但看不見的自己。
但坦白説,這一切都是徒勞的,因為黑暗處的影響因素太多。我們在時間軸上能做的,衹能是回顧過去和選擇當下。而過去的已經過去,你也無法回去改變什麼。所以,當我們投資的時候,對未來的預測,就僅僅是預測,可能對也可能錯,因為這一切都是基於過去的分析。
所以,當下最好的選擇,往往就是通過對過往數據和事件的分析,得出大概率的趨勢,比如經常運動的人身體更好,死得更晚。根據概率來決定當下的行動,這就是順勢而為。但未來一定會得到大概率的結果嗎?也不盡然,有可能這個喜歡運動的人出門就被車撞死了,這是小概率事件。
忠實遵從長期投資有價值的好公司這大概率也不一定100%賺錢,那怎麼辦?
明白到即使功課做足也沒有必賺的概率這一點,投資有6成以上的勝率,就隨遇而安就好。
著作網購鏈接(馬來西亞):《打工族股息路》
著作網購鏈接(新加坡):《打工族股息路》SG
大眾書局網購鏈接 :大眾書局網購鏈接
http://mercurychong.blogspot.com/2022/01/blog-post_11.html
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