摩根大通CEO: 或加息多达七次 政策紧缩过程未必“温和”
(纽约15日讯)华尔街最大银行的掌门人预测,美联储实际升息次数会比目前市场预估的更多,其还警告称,政策紧缩的过程不一定会像部分人可能以为的那样“和风细雨”。
摩根大通总执行长杰米戴蒙周五对分析师表示,美联储可能会加息多达七次以对抗不断上升的通胀率,但他没有透露加息会在多快时间内发生。
随着美联储多次对抗击通胀做出承诺,利率交易员已经提高了他们对美联储今年收紧政策的预期。
本周的数据显示,美国通胀率目前处于7%这一近四十年高位。掉期市场目前显示,今年料进行3-4次加息,每次幅度25基点,到2023年底累计将升息6次左右。
戴蒙称,“我预计加息次数会比市场认为的更多,很可能大于四次,也许会是六次或七次”。
“消费非常强劲,企业状况也相当好,” 戴蒙说。
“就经济增长而言,现在的局面很不错,比较显眼的负面因素就是通胀。”他认为,不能假设加息周期内经济不会增长。
因此,他对美国长期收益率没有进一步上涨感到意外。
30年期美国国债收益率目前徘徊在2.09%左右,仍处于疫情期的交易区间内,10年期国债收益率在达到1.81%后就失去了上行动力。
戴蒙认为,长期收益率最终可能对美联储缩表,也就是所谓的量化紧缩作出更多反应。目前虽然还没有正式宣布缩表时间,但市场对此的预期已经有所提前。
摩根大通的经济团队目前预测美联储将从3月开始加息,然后每季度加息一次,德意志银行和摩根史丹利等一些主要银行都认同这一观点。
美联储官员自己的预测中值是今年加息75个基点。
但这只是因为美联储在最近的周期中,倾向于采取渐进的方式来收紧货币政策,并不意味着加快紧缩是不可能的。
在对政策前景的讨论中,戴蒙回顾了前美联储主席沃尔克一口气将利率提高几个百分点的时代。
戴蒙说,“这似乎会是一个和风细雨的过程,没有人对此感到惊讶,但我觉得这种想法是错误的”。
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