技术分析在熊市中的盲点 | 胡立阳
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投资人问:
我勤研一堆技术分析整整半年,终于在2002年正式投入股市,准备大显身手。但连做梦也没想到,才短短的三年不到,我已经成为股市中的头号伤兵,简直是溃不成军!回想这三年来,我完全一步一步依照课本上的技术分析法则来做进出的决策,但是却发现这些法则根本只是花拳绣腿,中看不中用,否则我怎么会沦落到今天这种窝囊地步?我气,我气,我气气气!
技术分析在熊市中的盲点
技术分析大多具备某种程度的统计根据,不能一笔抹煞。但是在30年来的实战经验中,我一再注意到技术分析也常会有它的盲点!特别是,在熊市中它往往会一再失灵。所以,我常常提醒投资朋友,技术分析不是永远的万灵丹!现在,别生气吧,让我们一起分享一些经验!
在熊市中,一些以往极为灵验的技术分析法则不但会彻底失去准头,有时还会成为“反指标”呢!
许多技术分析中的法则、举例说,价涨量增、线形呈现多头排列、股价站上颈线等等,确实具有统计数字的根据,运用它们来做进出的决策常会感觉得心应手,相当具有参考价值。问题是,这些法则通常只适用在牛市中。在空头行情中,你如果还是依样画葫芦地不知及时修正甚至反向操作的话、准保你在吃足苦头之余,连自己是怎么赔的都还莫名其妙!
以成交量为例,在熊市中,由于缺乏赚头,自然会造成交易清淡,成交量大幅萎缩。不变的是,跌深总会有个反弹。而就在反弹之初,一些自以为相当了解技术分析的“专家”便会逮住机会,立即发表高论:“在未放量前不可轻举妄动!”偏偏事与愿违,指数不断扶摇直上。几天后,投资人终于有了反应,成交量开始迅速扩增。这时,同一批“专家”又会改说:“量能增加,反弹确认!”不幸的是,大盘很不捧场,开始一路回跌,股市中于是又添增了一大批赔得莫名其妙的苦主!
历经无数次的熊市洗礼,我早已注意到,在持续低迷的行情中,当成交量开始大幅扩增时,反而是个“卖点”而不是“买点”!
我常常注意到,一些还没有吃过熊市苦头的投资顾问,在行情刚刚开始反弹时候也会跟散户一样抱持半信半疑的态度,等到指数涨了一大截以后才又后知后觉地说“线形已呈现多头排列,涨势确认”,或是“黄金交叉出现,发出买进讯号”,预测结果又是“准”得令人啧啧称奇,只可惜是搞错了方向!
在熊市中。当“线形多头排列”时,通常是个大好的卖点,而不是买点。因为大盘一定已经反弹了一段时间,风险自然相对加大。再请注意,在空头行情中有的只是“跌深反弹”。没有在多头行情中所谓的“确认涨势”,如果分不清楚这两种状况,岂不误人误己?
在熊市中任何反弹都极为难能可贵,而且经常只是昙花一现,传统技术分析发出的买进讯号只会让你越套越多、越陷越深!
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