熊市五大悲伤过程 目前才走到第二阶
近期专家不断警告,极度通膨带来巨大压力,美国经济将面临衰退风险。分析师认为,空头熊市还没有结束,仍有漫长的路要走;一般来说“熊市心理”有悲伤五大阶段,目前只来到第二阶段。
美国财经网站Market Watch股市专栏作家Mark Hulbert表示,熊市心理学的发展过程,类似心理学家所说的悲伤五阶段,包括否认、愤怒、讨价还价、沮丧和接受。
一、否认:这个初步阶段,市场普遍认为,股市下跌就是买入时机。投资者此时相当乐观,因为股市回档提供低接进场机会,但这种想法只适用在多头牛市。
二、愤怒:随著市场下跌力道加剧,否认的念头撑不下去,投资者情绪终于转为愤怒,对于股价持续下跌气愤难平,如同遭受侮辱,就好像市场在乎你或我是否赔钱一样。
三、讨价还价:在这个阶段,投资者将注意力转向他们在投资组合受创下,能否维持他们的生活方式;退休人士重新调整理财规划。投资者只好放弃购买豪华新车或到欧洲度假,只要财务预算不要砍到见骨就好。
四、沮丧:股市崩跌持续,投资者意识到删减财务预算仍不够,接下来生活方式必须进行重大改变,如接近退休者要延后退休计划,已退休者再重新返回职场。
五、接受:在这最后阶段,投资者完全向熊市投降,甚至不敢想空头市场何时会结束。他们将任何股市走强迹象都视为死猫跳,认为是诱骗散户进场,并在下一轮下跌时,让韭菜套得更深赔更多钱。
现在美股走到5大阶段的哪个位置呢?Hulbert观察,目前只来到第二阶段,投资者气愤股价回档是不公平的,不满自己赔钱,可见市场距离“投降”还很远。他说,真正彻底投降的主要特征是冷漠,对市场死心、漠不关心,但也强调,并非所有熊市下跌都会经历5个阶段,就像所有回档修正也不一定都会变成空头走势。
Hulbert说,这个看法不是预言美股还有很多下跌的空间,而是指多头要拿回发球权之前,必须要先看到真正的投降,否则,多头论点只是证实市场跌势才刚开始而已。
https://www.sinchew.com.my/20220613/%E7%86%8A%E5%B8%82%E4%BA%94%E5%A4%A7%E6%82%B2%E4%BC%A4%E8%BF%87%E7%A8%8B-%E7%9B%AE%E5%89%8D%E6%89%8D%E8%B5%B0%E5%88%B0%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%8C%E9%98%B6/
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