银行业维持“增持”评级 次季财报符预期
(吉隆坡5日讯)银行股次季财报大致符合预期,经济复苏将推高贷款需求,贷款成本显著降低缓解银行减值压力,分析员预计这股趋势将维持至下半年,故维持银行业“增持”评级。
肯纳格研究在报告中指出,银行业次季业绩基本稳定,与上季预测结果相似,20%高于预期、70%符合预期、10%低于预期。其中联昌集团(CIMB,1023,主板金融服务组)和丰隆银行(HLBANK,5819,主板金融服务组)因高于预期的非利息收入(NoII)和联营公司贡献,业绩表现优于预期。
另一方面,大马伊银(BIMB,5258,主板金融服务组)未能达到预期,因投资在提高营运效率的营运资本较高拖累。值得一提的是马来亚银行(MAYBANK,1155,主板金融服务组)对还未出现强势复苏的休闲和油气领域进行一次性拨款,以及净减值回拨的带动,预计将促使未来季度的收益正常化。
迈入下半年,许多银行料可在短期内达成目标,部份业者也开始上调目标,相信低信贷成本将成为收益成长主要驱动力,净收入则受财政疲软表现而减少。虽然还款援助计划的失败将影响总减值贷款(GIL),但因占比不显著,所以不会有太大影响。
银行大致认为经济风险依旧存在,全球宏观经济或因供应链中断、大宗商品价格波动,以及进一步冲突而有所动摇。虽然一些银行的表现已经大大超出全年预期,但潜在经济风险可能会阻碍贷款增长预期。
分析员预测,国行在9月和11月的货币政策会议将各别上调25个基点利率,这将对除了马屋业(MBSB,1171,主板金融服务组)以外的其他银行都有利,高利率允许银行对融资进行重新进行调整。
肯纳格研究仍对银行领域抱持乐观态度,因为该行有望在高利率环境下展现韧性。客户的贷款、融资能力会因经济复苏,收入水平提高,而目前利率仍低于疫情前水平。
随着2023年繁荣税的取消和资产质量较预期稳定,银行料会有更好的利润表现,股息回酬也会进一步提高。但有鉴于当前宏观经济持续不确定影响,建议可投资中短期内派发稳定股息的银行股。
https://www.sinchew.com.my/20220906/%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%B4%E6%8C%81%E5%A2%9E%E6%8C%81%E8%AF%84%E7%BA%A7-%E6%AC%A1%E5%AD%A3%E8%B4%A2%E6%8A%A5%E7%AC%A6%E9%A2%84%E6%9C%9F/
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