高盛下调美国经济增长预估 认为衰退风险高达35%
(纽约12日讯)高盛的经济学家警告称,由于油价飙升和乌克兰境内战事的其他影响,他们下调了美国经济增长的预测,明年美国经济衰退的可能性高达35%。
以扬哈祖斯为首的经济学家在周四发布的报告中写道,将2022年实际GDP增长预测从2.0%下调至1.75%。
他们认为,美国经济在未来一年陷入衰退的风险,与目前基于收益率曲线斜率的模型所暗示的20%-35%可能性大体一致。
由于汽油、食品和住房成本上涨,美国2月份消费者价格涨幅加速至40年来的新高,在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后,通货膨胀有望进一步上升。
本周早些时候,美联储主席鲍威尔重申,该央行本月将加息并展开一系列加息,以遏制数十年来的最高通货膨胀,但他也表示,俄罗斯入侵乌克兰意味着美联储将谨慎行事。
经济学家在报告中写道,高盛新的预估值意味着低于2022年第一季度和第二季度的潜在增长以及2022年的整体潜在增长。他们说,油价和农产品价格上涨将给可支配收入带来压力。
国际货币基金(IFM)总裁格奥尔基耶娃周四表示,该组织在下个月的春季会议之前提出修订版预测时,可能会削减对今年全球增长的预测
随着新冠疫情进入第三个年头,国际货币基金在1月份将2022年的预测下调至4.4%,理由是美国和中国的前景疲软以及通货膨胀持续。
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