高盛:美联储或需升息至4%以上
(纽约9日讯)高盛集团首席经济学家扬·哈祖斯表示,美联储可能需要将利率提高到“大幅”超过其当前预期的水平,才能为过热的美国经济降温。
“如果经济没有放缓,特别是如果我们没有看到就业增长显著放缓,那么你会看到某个东西可能大幅上升,达到4%以上的范围,”他周五接受彭博电视采访时表示。
他指出,这并非高盛的预期。同时,他也警告说,面对40年来最热的通胀和1950年代以来最强的劳动力市场,美联储需要“花式步法”才能实现软着陆。
“我们的基线预测是,到2023年中期,利率将略高于3%,但这个预测显然存在风险,”他表示。
“下行方面,金融环境可能会比他们希望的水平更加紧张。上行方面,经济可能依然很强,或者金融环境没能进一步收紧。”
美联储上个月将联邦基金利率目标区间上调了25个基点,至0.25%-0.5%,并在点阵图中暗示2022年底利率升至1.9%、2023年底升至2.8%。
之后,官员们的讲话都显示他们愿意更快加息以遏制通胀,包括可能在5月3-4日的会议上加息50个基点。
下次升息50基点
本周发布的3月份美联储会议纪要显示,他们中的许多人上个月就倾向于加息50个基点,但鉴于俄乌战争爆发,他们选择了更加谨慎的25个基点加息,并愿意在未来一次或多次会议上加息50个基点。
“美联储的目标是逐步收紧金融环境,否则他们将无法实现他们的目标——将经济稳定在接近充分就业但不过热的状态,”他说。
美国2月份消费者价格指数同比上涨7.9%,为1982年以来最大涨幅。
美联储2%通胀目标对标的是另一项指标——个人消费支出价格指数,该指数在2月份折年率上涨6.4%。
与此同时,美国劳动力市场依然强劲,3月份失业率降至3.6%,新增就业43.1万。
https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/975853/%E9%AB%98%E7%9B%9B-%E7%BE%8E%E8%81%94%E5%82%A8%E6%88%96%E9%9C%80%E5%8D%87%E6%81%AF%E8%87%B34-%E4%BB%A5%E4%B8%8A
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