美元指数六个月低点 聚焦美联储升息步伐
(纽约3日讯)彭博美元即期指数跌至6月以来最低水平,交易员预计美联储政策激进程度减弱将推动美元继续回吐今年以来的涨幅。
该指数目前较9月触及的高点下跌近8%,在本周美元走软之际,日元在G-10货币中表现最佳。
有迹象显示通胀和经济增长都在降温,市场猜测美联储将最早在本月放慢加息步伐。随着美国国债收益率下跌,市场对美元的需求也有所消退。
“几乎不考虑经济后果而大举加息的日子似乎已经过去了,”三菱日联金融集团研究负责人德里克·哈彭尼在给客户的报告中写道。
“货币政策收紧方式将更加微妙,通胀数据之外的经济数据的重要性将大很多。”他补充说,“这意味着持有美元多头头寸的风险回报已经改变。”
每月就业数据定于周五发布,这可能为了解经济状况提供一些线索,在此之前,亚马逊和Meta等科技巨头纷纷裁员。
本周数据显示,一项通胀指标升幅低于预期,而制造业活动指标2020年5月以来首次收缩。
日元成主要受益者
随着整体大环境的变化,此前因美日央行政策差异而遭挫的日元,成为主要受益者。
美元/日元周五一度下跌1.3%,至1美元兑133.63日元,为8月16日以来最低水平。
“考虑到我们已经开始看到美联储加息的终点,美元可能会在更长期内倾向于走低,”三井住友信托银行驻东京的市场策略师濑绫子表示。
“美元之前有很多利好因素,包括高通胀和强劲的就业,但现在投资者不确定这些因素会持续多久。”
https://www.enanyang.my/%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E8%B4%A2%E7%BB%8F/%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0%E5%85%AD%E4%B8%AA%E6%9C%88%E4%BD%8E%E7%82%B9-%E8%81%9A%E7%84%A6%E7%BE%8E%E8%81%94%E5%82%A8%E5%8D%87%E6%81%AF%E6%AD%A5%E4%BC%90
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