MIECO (5001) - 美固木屑板Mieco:不用出口的出口股




自从2008年次贷危机爆发以来,以出口为导向的板股都跌落到了谷底,且延续了三四年的颓势。

“When the US subprime housing crisis hit hard world-wide soon after that in 2008 and Hevea went into first time losses. Hevea was at the brink of bankruptcy when it owed bankers RM225m in debts when its share price dropped to just a few sen.”       --Kcchong

其中以Hevea最糟,欠债累累,近乎倒闭,股价只剩下几针钱,送也没有人要。
随着各国联合努力救市,加上中国经济的崛起,美国的房市也慢慢复苏,板股重见曙光。
经过这两年努力不断地还债,如今的Hevea已经是个净现金公司,而Mieco还在卖地卖厂还债度日。
Hevea有本事从末班车变成模范生,以高达20%以上的股东回酬率领先同行,Mieco到底有没有能力追赶Hevea呢?

last 12m
share price
pe
Roe (%)
Dy (%)
nta
Dated 14-Jun
Mieco
0.86
3.87
14.4
0
1.54
 
Hevea
1.22
7
21.2
2.25
0.82
 
Evergreen
1.1
10
8.03
0.91
1.37
 

屋漏偏逢连夜雨

2013年,Mieco的流动债务为流动资产的双倍,Mieco的现金流根本无法如期偿还贷款,这时的银行更加没有通融的余地,决定按期收回贷款,Mieco只好卖厂卖地填补欠额。

During the year, we disposed of our leasehold industrial land in Semambu, Pahang together with the factory buildings erected thereon for a total cash consideration of RM23 million.

Mieco于2014年卖了位于Semambu的厂房和土地,所以才会把厂房搬迁至Gebeng。
接着Mieco 2016年首季卖了位于彭亨州一万英亩的森林管理权公司,总值35m。
把一大片可以砍伐森林地就酱给卖了实在是可惜,可是公司的当务之急是努力还债,精简营运,专注核心业务。

The Group diligently reduced its bank loans in 2015 and the proposed final settlement of the Company’s syndicated term loans in 2016 will be a significant milestone for the Group.

负债率从2013年的105%下调至2016年首季的46%,其中只有三分之一是银行贷款,其他的都是应付款项、员工福利等可以拖的东西。

在股东大会上,有一位显著大股东(不是官有缘)建议公司应该削减面值,发附加股筹资,而不是单靠内部资金,因为这两年是家私股的春天,无论你是想要附加股还是私配,大马的资金市场都很愿意助你一臂之力。

当然,这也关系到大股东BRDB拿不出钱来,所以不敢发附加股,怕自己的股权被稀释,只好硬着头皮卖地又卖厂
2015年初,BRDB曾经想要把所有股权卖给某某公司,已经获得SC,可是银行债主不批,所以协议被迫取消
总的来说,Mieco这只股票就算在最低迷的时刻也不乏追求者的。

Kuala Lipis厂房是否过分减值?

In 2013, as a result of continuing losses at the Kuala Lipis plant, a non-cash impairment loss of RM45.8 million was reported in accordance with the provisions of the relevant Accounting Standards. That non-cash impairment affected the Profit and Loss of the MIECO Group for 2013 and was reflected in the RM70.2 million pre-tax loss for 2013.

45.8m的减值是有够力的,导致Mieco在2013财年直接陷入巨额亏损,虽然不涉及金钱支出,但盈亏表还是非常的难看。

Based on the management’s assessment in FY2013 using the parameters applicable then, the estimated recoverable amount for the plant based on a value-in-use calculation was RM287.3 million, which was lower by RM45.8 million than its carrying value of RM333.1 million, necessitating the provision for an impairment loss of RM45.8 million.

管理层表示,该减值拨备是根据厂房的使用价值而定。
股东怀疑管理层是否过分贬值,现场的发问主要都是针对机械厂房的贬值率。
我们知道减值的目的是为了能切实的反应资产的价值,也符合了会计的谨慎原则(Prudence)。
不过这些东西就交给会计师去烦吧,反正机器的东西有生产就有价值,没有生产就等于废铁。
但好消息是只要K. Lipis恢复盈利,总值45.8m的拨备就能够填补回去。

In FY2014, the performance of the Kuala Lipis plant improved marginally compared to that in FY2013. The value-in-use of RM297.9 million calculated in FY2014 exceeded the net carrying value by RM13.6 million. Although at the end of FY2014 the Directors could have written back this excess, they chose not to, waiting instead for a more sustained recovery of the Kuala Lipis plant. In FY2015, the Kuala Lipis plant continued to register improved performance, resulting in the calculated valuein-use for FY2015 increasing further to RM28.7 million. This excess demonstrates that the Kuala Lipis plant is getting better year on year. Again, on grounds of prudence the Directors have decided not to write back the excess for FY2015.

其实Lipis的厂房在前两年已经恢复盈利,但是管理层谨慎起见,选择不要填补拨备,而是等盈利在若干年稳定而且不断进步,才打算填补。

专业人士班底

没错,这两年Mieco卖厂卖地,巨额拨备的策划人就是Kajendra,他现在已经从总营运长升职成执行董事。
他拥有特许会计师执照,曾经在Big Four工作,强项在于整顿企业的结构性改革。Mieco这两年来的改革都是由他所领导。
本人有在股东大会见到他,谈吐谨慎保守,有三分把握就说三分的话,不会卖大包。
现场他也有做slide show,详细的解说公司的现况和未来的发展。在场的股东都感到满意。


2015财报总结

The Group achieved a pre-tax profit of RM18.6 million in 2015, compared to the pre-tax profit of RM19.4 million posted in 2014. It is however pertinent to note that the 2014 pre-tax profit included an exceptional gain of RM16.1 million from the disposal of the land and buildings in Semambu, Pahang, which housed the Group’s first plant.

尽管舟车劳顿,2015年仍然取得飞跃性的成长。若排除一次性盈利,2015年的税前盈利按年增长了5.6倍,这主要是拜家私股的出口生意好到不行所赐。

三月份季报点评

For the first quarter of 2016, Group revenue of RM61.4 million decreased 28% against RM85.5 million a year ago mainly due to lower production output at the Lipis Plant due to a fire that damaged certain machinery. An insurance claim has been submitted for these losses.

营业额按年按季都下跌了两成,主要是火患所造成的,导致位于Kuala Lipis厂房的作业受损。这些损失过后都是可以claim回来的,所以绝不用担心。

另外,Mieco脱售了旗下的森林木业子公司,获利35m或约17仙的每股净利。这个消息市场已经预期了,所以股价没有有太大的涨幅。


员工是无形的价值资产

员工培训是至关重要的,往往有很多公司忽略。很多公司只会增加生产线,扩建,买这个买那个。但到头来还不是需要前线的员工来操作这些机器。

We strongly believe that a well-trained and skilled workforce is essential to any manufacturing company. As such, MIECO made significant progress in areas of staff training and development, increasing training hours from 5 hours per person per annum in 2014 to 9.25 hours per person per annum in 2015; an almost two fold increase. Our concerted efforts also ensured we completed more than 90% of our 2015 Training Plan.

Mieco把每名技工的培训时数从2014年的5小时增至2015年的9小时。技工熟练,生产出来的产品才能保持水准,减少瑕疵品。

我怀疑有很多公司是没有培训这个概念的,就是员工一进来就从不会骂到会为止。酱的话,生产出来的产品也会充满负能量滴哦。


物理定律可套用在股票上

为什么转亏为盈的公司拥有爆发的潜能?
根据物理定律,一个被压紧的弹簧储存了很大的动能,所以只要手一放开,弹簧立马就会弹开。
同样的,一间亏损累累的公司也储藏了很多可扣税亏损。只要一开始赚钱,公司就可以不用缴税。
如果你有注意到的话,2015年Mieco的税前盈利几乎就等于税后净利。
这就是以前Mieco累积下来的435m亏损税务回扣,以后的四五年内都可以慢慢拿来扣除。

间接的出口股

Particleboard prices rose steadily, driven by increased demand from local furniture exporters, as a result of growing demand and recovery in global export markets.

Mieco有八成的营业额是来自本地, 但主要都是是供应给本地的家私出口商,所以Mieco的前景是跟家私出口业息息相关。

Mieco的生产成本是马币,赚的也是马币,所以投资Mieco的好处是可以享受家私业的荣景,又不用担心汇率的波动。

我知道大家很希望令吉继续贬值,因为去年的下半年令吉大贬,大家都尝到了甜头。
若大家一味依赖外汇的变动来赚股市的钱,那么倒不如直接去买forex或者相关的衍生工具。
就连冷眼和巴菲特等投资大师都从不预测大市的走势,更何况是我们这些凡夫俗子。
Mieco这只股票提供了一个很好地外汇避险的选择。

As a result of these efforts, domestic demand grew, supported by higher pricing levels, and in turn contributing to overall growth in revenue. Almost all existing MFC production capacity was taken up by the marketplace, while demand for particleboard exceeded supply

这段话的大意就是说Mieco厂房的产能用到尽,完全没有剩,整个合成板的市场需求远超越供应量。
无论生产成本是涨还是跌,外汇是升还是贬,市场需求才是王道
如果市场需求逐渐萎缩,一味只靠外汇价差的收益,是不能持久的。
令吉走强后,很快就知道谁在裸泳了。

MIECO (5001) - 美固木屑板Mieco:不用出口的出口股
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kakashit/98427.jsp