Contrarian bet: Why I sold PETRONM?


Very simple. PETRONM plans to spend at least US$1.5 billion to expand capacity of its oil refinery in Malaysia.

At the AGM last week, PETRONM are said they are reviewing options on the US$1.5 billion capex, including funding with debt and equity.

3 possible options I can think of

    If they use debt, borrowing will increase RM6 billion! They may cut dividend for many years.
    Private placement or rights issue means huge dilution to current shareholders. PETRONM has 270 million outstanding shares. They may issue 800 million new shares to raise RM6 billion.
    50/50. RM3 billion debt and RM3 billion private placement/ rights issue also means huge dilution. Market capitalization for PETRONM is RM2 billion only.

All options are very dilutive and very risky to me. I decided to sell.

I welcome constructive comments.



News article
Petron to start $20B oil refinery in early 2018

Other than its planned greenfield project, Petron plans to spend another $2 billion (P99.41 billion) to expand its plants in Bataan and Malaysia


Expansion in Malaysia, Philippines

Other than its greenfield project, Ang said Petron plans to earmark a spending budget of another $2 billion (P99.41 billion) to expand its plants in Bataan and Malaysia.

He said Petron plans to spend at least $1.5 billion (P74.57 billion) to expand the capacity of its oil refinery in Malaysia to 150,000 barrels a day from 88,000 barrels a day. Petron also plans to spend about $500 million (P24.86 billion) to upgrade its refinery in Bataan.

"Right now, Malaysian investment contributes about 25% of our revenue. It will only grow if we invest in the Malaysian refinery upgrade. Otherwise, it is just like buy and sell. So, the Malaysian refinery, we have to upgrade. At the moment, we are finalizing the study to do the upgrade," Ang told reporters.

He said the Malaysian market is promising, with about 25 million population, consuming around 600,000 barrels a day.

Petron acquired in 2011 Esso Malaysia's Port Dickson refinery and fuel retail network in Malaysia.

Source: http://www.rappler.com/business/170029-petron-new-petrochemical-plant-ang


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