HIBISCS (5199) 大紅花石 - 大红花石油 股价上涨空间大--



2017-1-10 06:53 

分析:大众投行研究



目标价:60仙
最新进展:

大红花石油(HIBISCS,5199,主板工业产品股)与国油勘探(Petronas Carigali)私人有限公司合作,以2500万美元(约1亿463万令吉),收购荷兰皇家蚬壳(Royal Dutch Shell)在沙巴北部的提高石油产量生产共享合约(PSC)50%股权和共同经营权。

收购计划预计会在今年中旬完成,目前正待国家石油(Petronas)批准。

行家建议:

若收购计划成功,我们估计,大红花石油的合理价值将为1.15令吉。

目前该股的目标价为60仙。沙巴北部的资产收购将为该公司带来55仙的上涨潜能,因此若完成该收购活动,股价将上涨。

不过,即便是目前60仙的目标价,从目前股价计算,也有达37.1%的上涨空间。
因石油输出国组织(OPEC)减产、特朗普主张贸易保护主义,及石油勘探活动重启,石油价格将稳定在每桶50美元(约223.88令吉),该股更具吸引力。

a)个人功课:
--收购成北沙巴油田后,每日生产12500桶原油,这笔帳不少哦。
ns有50%共享(9000桶) +anasuria(3500桶)=12500桶,
油 56usd为5.5 usd,简单
12500x360x5.5x4.25=105m
105m (净利) ÷ 1.544b(股数)=6.8 sen(eps) 
取Pe=20 ,股价=RM1.36  
注:以上是目前油价计,未來油价上升其净利可提高。
--近,48SEN+86SEN=RM1.34
--3-11-2017
 https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
Crude oil :55.64 usd +1.1
Brent:62.07usd +1.45
原油漲至兩年新高,Hibiscs 为油气上游生产者终将看到幸福。

--估计2018年赚2.69亿,这是股数1.500b计,eps=18 sen
5199 HIBISCUS 大紅花石油己生产石油了(Anasuria油田,20年的开采期) ,
己6个季度取得净利,布籣特原油价62 usd 绝对是利好.tp=1元,公司于30-6-2017现金有5450万.
公司目前零债务和刚转亏为盈的优势,为日后的发展机会融资。
“融资部分将用于寻找可提高产量的实惠方案,及于2018与2019年发展Anasuria油田,
原油价格每桶高于40美元,我们的运作仍处舒适阶段。因此现56美元公司维持净利向好.
在基本面转强与板塊转向油气股下将展现大红大紫的光采。展望未来在美元走弱下,
人民币国际化与走强趋势下,中国取得更多的商品定价权,石油人民币时代來了,大宗商品,石油,黄金将走强。
opec的减产至2018年3月並可能延长期限.
油价在未来6个月内有希望回到65美元/桶的水平。
長期会保持于70usd间.
有用的中文财经网:
https://wallstreetcn.com/
https://cn.investing.com/markets/
https://cn.investing.com/economic-calendar/


只是分享,投资请三思且自负

b)--网友hibisrock分享:谢谢他的功课,
Another way to look at 16,000bopd for 360days, 50% NS PSC, average cost $15/bbl, PSC split 15:85, that will be $5.5/bbl net to Hibiscus. Estimated 2017 NS PBT > 16,000x x 0.5 x 360 x 5.5 x 4.25 = RM67Mill to be captured as one time gain by early 2018.
为1-11-2017发(布油收56 usd),3-11-2017 收62 usd,

c)--网友MoneyNotEnough 分享:谢谢他的功课,
 Public Investment Bank Target Price
Brent Oil at USD55/bbl = RM1.06
Brent Oil at USD60/bbl = RM1.08

https://www.docdroid.net/Y3AdbRC/hibiscus.pdf

The reason why only increase by RM0.02 is because Sabah EOR is a 2C Contingent Resources. It need to be converted to 2P Reserves.

Once convert to 2P Reserves, the Target Price will go up to RM1.46 (base on USD60/bbl)

Those who want to understand what is contingent resources, can refer to link below.https://www.gljpc.com/sites/default/files/Understanding%20Contingent%2...



d)

国际油市:美国原油创两年高位,此前美国活跃钻机数下降

Reuters  | 2017年11月4日 04:00
* 美国原油和布兰特原油本周升3% 
* 全球需求不断增长支撑油价 
* 中东生产商上调给亚洲买家的售价 
* 委内瑞拉债务问题令石油投资者忧虑 
* 美国活跃钻机数减少8座,至729座-贝克休斯 

路透纽约11月3日 - 油价周五上涨,美国原油创两年高位,此前公布的美国活跃钻机数据显示,美国钻探活动会有所节制。 

最新发布的钻机数据支撑了全球供应过剩局面在好转的观点。本周油价得到提振,因数据显示全球需求上涨,且石油输出国组织(OPEC)和其它产油国可能会延长减产协议。 

美国原油 CLc1 收高1.10美元,或2%,报每桶55.64美元,为2015年7月以来最高。 

布兰特原油 LCOc1 收高1.45美元,或2.4%,报每桶62.07美元。较6月触及的年内低位上涨了约38%。 

本周两大合约均升逾3%。 

本周,美国能源公司减少八座活跃钻机,为2016年5月以来的最大降幅,延续了夏季以来价格跌穿每桶50美元后钻探活动下降的趋势。 

“市场仍然从延长减产协议,和需求强劲的预期获得支撑,”Tradition Energy市场研究董事Gene McGillian称。 
OPEC将於11月底开会讨论每日减产180万桶的协议到期后,将如何行动。 

中国大约每日进口原油900万桶,已超过美国成为全球最大原油进口国。 

现货石油价格也上涨。沙特阿美、阿联酋的ADNOC和卡塔尔Qatar Petroleum均提高了对亚洲买家的价格,沙特阿美的12月合约较阿曼和迪拜指标均价的溢价水平现在为三年来最高。 

交易员还关注OPEC成员国委内瑞拉及其国家石油公司PDVSA当前的金融困境可能带来的风险。(完) 
e)
http://mailchi.mp/oilprice/oilprice-intelligence-report-why-oil-prices-are-seeing-a-steep-correction-1521545?e=e84bce4ac9
f)

Russia, Saudi Arabia ready for more work to cut global oil inventory

TASHKENT/MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are ready to do more work to reduce global oil inventories, the Russian energy ministry said in a statement on Saturday after a meeting of officials from the four countries.
Russia and Saudi Arabia are leading a deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to cut global oil production, with the aim of propping up oil prices.
“The states-participant signified satisfaction of reducing commercial stocks of oil and stated their readiness to continue (to make) join efforts towards such a direction”, the statement said.
OPEC, Russia and other oil producers are due to meet at the end of November in Vienna to decide whether to extend the current supply-cut pact.
According to the Russian Energy Ministry, the formerly Soviet state Turkmenistan will take part at the meeting as an observer.
Saudi Arabian oil minister Khalid al-Falih said after the meeting that more work was needed to cut inventories.
“There is a general satisfaction with the strategy of 24 countries that signed a declaration of cooperation”.
“Everybody recognizes that (the) job is not done yet by any means, we still have significant amount of work to do to bring inventories down. Mission is not yet complete, more needs to be done,” he added.
He said members of the global pact he had spoken with have expressed the same views.
“This is the same sentiment I’ve heard yesterday from (Kazakh) President (Nursultan) Nazarbayev, this is the same sentiment I’ve heard from all the oil-producing members of the Asia energy ministers’ round table”, he said.
Officials from Malaysia, Ecuador, Nigeria and Libya have also given him similar feedback, Falih said.
“All committed to working with other producers and supporting the agreement”, the Saudi oil minister added.
g)

BP Boosts The Bullish Case For Oil

rig
BP is buying back shares the company issued to cover its dividend payout amid the oil price crash. The news was widely seen as a clear indication that one of the world’s supermajors has successfully adjusted to the new price normal and is now settling in the business-as-usual rut once again.
Yet this is a new rut of strict cost controls, continuous efforts to keep lowering production costs, and working to mend the reputation stain left by the 2011 Deepwater Horizon disaster.
The combination of these factors, along with higher oil prices, of course, helped the company boost its third-quarter net profit substantially, and according to BP executives, the road ahead is clear and the direction is back to growth, with breakeven at $49 a barrel.
The breakeven price has become a metric that oil investors and analysts are watching like hawks. It didn’t matter when Brent sold for over $120 a barrel, but now that the profit margins have been squeezed so tightly, breakeven has come to the fore and BP is just one of many oil majors striving to bring it down as low as it can go.
The share buyback news pulled BP’s shares higher and with a good reason. The UK-based major became the first among its peers to start buying back shares as it feels confident enough with the current cash flows. This confidence means BP has enough cash on hand to fund dividend payments in full. Investors and analysts have traditionally watched the cash metric closely, as it caused much worry during the price downturn.
The obvious question: How sustainable is this sentiment? The answer is complex and involves factors such as technological progress, climate change measures, and global oil fundamentals—but one thing seems certain: The sustainable improvement in BP’s and other supermajors’ results will, to a large extent, hinge on refining operations.
BP’s third-quarter performance—a more than doubling of net profits to $1.9 billion—came largely on the back of an increase in downstream profits, which hit US$2.3 billion. To compare, upstream profits came in at $1.6 billion.Related: The Oil Company That Lost $800 Billion In Shareholder Value
Downstream operations have helped all the supermajors survive the price collapse, and it seems they will continue to provide strong support to the bottom line. Recently, Wood Mackenzie forecast that rising demand for petrochemicals will save integrated oil companies from a slump in financial performance, becoming the main driver for oil demand, to replace fuels.
Another recent paper reinforces this expectation. A report from Carbon Tracker suggests a quarter of refining capacity in the world will go under by 2035 if all the governments that have undertaken initiatives to slow down the rate of global warming to 2 degrees Celsius by that year stick to their promises.
Those who have complex refining operations, Carbon Trackers said, will survive thanks to the variety of products they market. Refiners of a simpler nature will be squeezed out of the market by consistently lower margins resulting from lower oil demand. That’s good news for the supermajors with their complex refining operations, and BP’s latest figures are just one more piece of evidence that they’re on the right track with cutting costs across operations and finding ways to strengthen refining margins further through efficiency boosts and new products.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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