The Sunset or Sunrise of Plastic Packaging Industry- bluefun

Tags




大年初二,小弟向亲爱的朋友们拜个早年 。祝愿亲爱的朋友们在新的一年里:
身体健康
万事如意
心想事成
事事顺心
把握机会
捉住良机
恭喜发财
新年快乐

今年的我们一定要比去年更加地进步,更加地美好

话说回来,今天要探讨的是近期的包装塑料业公司都是迈向一路向南的姿态,到底是发生什么大事了呢??

欢迎朋友们在新年时有空可以看一看小弟的一番研究,也许会带给亲爱的朋友们不一样的观点也不一定,研究学习琢磨真的好有趣呢,哈哈哈

所谓:“事出必有因”,所以我们可以从公司的历史季度业绩 (historical past performance result) 去发掘一路向南之间的奥秘所在。同一个行业的公司,都会有一样的共同点。

无论在 revenue & PBT up or down 之时。 只要我们细心研究观察,就会发现问题的所在,趋势的姿态

1. Revenue VS PBT margin

包装塑料业公司的销售额一直呈现逐渐上升的趋势 (up trending),无奈的是 PBT margin 却一直缺乏良好的改善,所以无法推动 PBT 上升。
Revenue up trending,PBT margin drop, PBT ding ding dong dong,lack of attractive of investor,share price down trending
Double digit growth in revenue NOT = double digit growth in PBT,
How about triple digit growth in COS VS double digit growth in revenue???

2. Rising in Raw Material cost

原料成本随着世界的 crude oil & natural gas而上涨。虽然上扬中的成本可以转嫁给客户,这就是为什么 revenue up trending??
无奈的是多亏马币强劲的福,在美元强劲风光无比之后,还是必须接受现实而深受 FOREX loss 的困扰,推低了 PBT margin & PBT。
Cost of sales up trending with revenue,but due to strengthen of MYR, lack of major improvement in PBT margin/PBT

3. FOREX Fluctuation Impact

风水轮流转,靠出口生意为主的公司都在美元强劲的时候风光一时, revenue up,PBT up, PBT margin up,share price up!!
风水转转转,靠出口生意为主的公司都在马币再一度硬起来之时垂头丧气。revenue up, PBT drop, PBT margin drop,share price drop!!
FOREX is a bonus,in order to expand to increase company's revenue,how to manage cost efficiency/effective continues is a brilliant job of the company。

4. Expansion need PATIENCE

包装塑料业公司近期都在 private placement etc 拓展业务以迎合世界包装塑料业需求的上扬。
种一棵 musang king 都需要 4-5 years,怀一胎生一个小孩都要 7 - 10 months,公司拓展业务也需要 2 - 3 years才能反映在公司的 revenue & PBT。
Plant a MUSANG KING tree need YEARS, business expansion need more PATIENCE!!!


投资不是今天买进,明天上扬,后天卖出那样简单。
而是必须善用智慧去捉住机会,用心去相信,才会成事呀。
用心去等待良机的到来,也是投资的一部分;
捉住机会用耐心去培养,会是价值的盛满花。
找出公司问题的所在,以提升自己的全面分析能力,增加投资胜算才是对血汗钱的诚心的交代 XD


___________________________________________________
趋势中的基本面分析
VIP by bluefun - bluefun's score Automated Template
@https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UBfLzG2qWL_KQpmh2tYW9WWab-AHrj5CX9GoRpngsrY/edit?ts=59ecb23d#gid=1279247925
VIP = Very Important Person
VIP = Value Investing Philosophy
有了 VIP by bluefun,人人都可以自行分析成为行家,发掘被低估的公司 (improvement in bluefun score),在股价合理时拥抱,享有 competitive advantages。
市场上除了 Fundamental Analysis & Technical Analysis,还有一个独创一格的 trending in FA ,也就是 VIP by bluefun, kikiki
这绝对是投资世界里第一个“趋势中的基本面”!!!
有了 VIP,你绝对可以成为投资界的 VIP
走过路过千万不要错过, VIP by bluefun 已于 2017年11月11日光棍节 (星期六) 正式隆重登场投入服务。
VIP by bluefun:
(1) Covered of 870 companies in bursa
(2) NO MANUAL DATA KEY IN
(3) 1 button to click & load bluefun's score (5FY+ 7Q + TTM)
(4) Incoming quarterly result + annual report will be auto updated within 1-2weeks after company release in bursa
(5) Trending of bluefun's score & share price
(6) Use the past performance result to discover potential company, to predict future value trending
(7) Annual subscription fee on affordable & competitive
(8) Subscriber will entitled for trending case study in PDF format
(9) Additional feature in future ALL IS FREE
(10) FISHING SKILLS LEARNING instead of providing fish
Scoring system 以满分为 10分的标准,可用来分析趋势中的基本面 (trending in Fundamental Analysis) ,已让朋友们了解原来 improvement bluefun score(10 stock selection criteria),公司的价值也会有所反应哦。这就是为什么投资者愿意以这一个水平的股价买进投资那一家公司哦。 XD
bluefun'score criteria:
(1) ROIC - to identify strong & profitable company
(2) EV/EBT - to identify undervalued & cheap company
(3) Cash Yield - Cash flow management
(4) Dividend Yield - > ROI, < cost of invested capital
(5) CFFO - to determine efficiency in CFFO generation
(6) FCF - to determine efficiency in CFFO generation
(7) Net cash - < financial risk
(8) Trade Receivables - to determine efficiency in debt collection
(9) Growth EAT - to identify good earning visibility
(10) EBT margin - > margin
___________________________________________________

不忘初心,踏实前进 《bluefun 的基本面学习课程 Fundamental Analysis Course》
bluefun's Fundamental Analysis Course: (大功告成)
@https://www.facebook.com/pg/bluefun696/photos/?tab=album&album_id=404342119958874
1. Introduction & Interpretation of Financial Statement & Annual Report
2. Financial Ratio Analysis
3. Magic Formula(ROIC, EBIT multiple,EY, CY)
4. Dividend
5. Free Cash Flow Analysis
6. Identify Real Growth Stock
7. Stock Selection : bluefun Score
8. Corporate Exercise(Share split, bonus issue, warrant, right issue)
Any queries please DM(direct message) or email to bluefun.fa@outlook.com
__________________________________________________
Greater improvement in bluefun’s score + future earning visibility + consistent future growth = value creation for investor = UP TRENDING in company share price
#持之以恒
#水到渠成
#趋势中的基本面分析
趋势中的基本面分析创办人兼喜欢绿色多过红色的小农夫
17.02.2018
 

Fb page
Email

P/S: This article is just for education & discussion purpose,this is not a buy call, sell call or hold call. Please trade at your own risk。

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bluefun/147676.jsp