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Business Model (生意模式)

Fundamental analysis is not only about value, but also business itself, and business may or may not affect the share price directly. One of the examples we saw this year is healthcare, any companies that are related with healthcare products will have their share price surged up their historical high.

Why is business model so important? Take year 2020 as an example, if you are a construction company, property company, or tourism company, your business will definitely be significantly affected. This is also the reason that no one would like to invest in these companies after the outburst of the covid-19, not after the vaccine is released in late 2020.

When investing in companies, we shall choose companies that their business will be essential in the future. A few examples included electric car, technology, cashless companies. There are also companies that will not be as trendy as these but also significantly important such as pharmaceutical, healthcare and consumer product. These businesses are a must in the future whether the economics are good or bad, as someone is unable to survive with medication support, or unable to work without the support from technologies.

It is also not advisable to invest in companies that are constantly affected by commodities pricing. This is because their profit is manipulated by the commodities price, such as oil, palm oil and gold, and that is something that the company itself has no control over it. For example, the oil price dropped to around 30 in March and April 2020, making the oil related companies to suffer severe losses on their business, and significant drop in their share prices. On the other hand, palm oil companies are benefitted from the low inventories and high palm oil pricing, making most palm oil companies reached their historical high profit. However, their profit will be reduced if palm oil price dropped below RM3000.

In short, we should not only focus on numerical value such as profit margin, PE ratio and such, but also focus on the business model. Look in depth on whether their current profit will be sustainable in the future, or is there any chance that their business will grow more in the future.

基本面的分析不只是看它们的数值,但也包括了生意本身,而生意多少也会影响股价的走势。其中一个我们今年看到的例子就是医疗行业,只要有任何的公司与医疗扯上关系,它们的股价就会飙升到历史新高。

那为什么生意模式那么重要呢?我们拿2020年来做例子,如果你是建筑公司,房地产公司,或者旅游公司的话,你的生意肯定会受影响。这也是为什么投资者在疫苗出来前的年中完全不去看这些板块。

当我们投资一家公司的时候。我们应该选会在未来有一番作为的行业。有几个例子包括了电子车,科技,无现金的公司。当然,我们也可以选择没有那么有趋势,但却不可或缺的版块,例如医药,医疗,以及消费品行业。这些行业是在未来必备的,无论当时的经济是好或是坏,毕竟有些人是需要固定的药来维持生命的,而一些人在没有科技的支持下不能完成工作。

笔者也不建议投资者投资在会被商品价钱所影响的公司。这是因为公司的盈利将会被商品价格,例如油价,棕油价格,或者金价影响,而公司本身是无法控制这种价格的。举例,国际油价在2020年3月到4月的时候跌到30美金左右,造成油气公司蒙受严重的亏损,也造成它们的股价屡屡下跌。另一方面,棕油公司则得益于低库存以及好的棕油价格,造就了大多数的棕油公司都突破历史新高的盈利。但是要知道的是,它们的盈利将会在棕油价格下滑后造成一定的影响。

总结,我们不应该在投资时只专注在好比净利润率,本益比等的数值,而也应该看看他们的生意模式。深探公司现在的盈利是否能在未来继续保持,或者公司是否有机会在未来让盈利继续成长呢。

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https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/InvestingKnowEverything/2021-01-01-story-h1538463833.jsp

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