押注大马升息在即 短期国债收益率飙升
(吉隆坡13日讯)市场愈发相信本地升息势在必行,导致较短期的债券饱受压力,3与5年期马债收益率过去半年飙升逾50个基点,创去年初以来新高。
债券收益率上扬,意味着债券价格下跌。
彭博报道,随着经济从疫情所带来的创伤中复原,掉期市场目前预测,国家银行将在接下来2年内,将利率水平提升超过100个基点,至3%左右。
国行下一轮货币政策会议,将在下周四(20日)召开。
接受彭博社调查的经济学家,也一直在上调我国的升息预测。
截至明年底,学者们平均预测我国利率会提升至2.4%,比11月时预测的2.3%高。
狮城星展银行外汇与利率策略员谭邓肯(译音)说:“随着鹰派利率(走势)预测,和当地银行债券需求疲软,5年以下短期(债务)的收益率倾向于走高。”
5年与20年国债收益率差距 13/1/22
同时,他预计5与20年收益率曲线在今年趋平。
虽然短期债券收益率走高,但长期债券收益率几乎持平,导致收益率曲线趋平。
另外,3年和20年期债券收益率差距,目前约在130个基点左右。
谭邓肯补充,长期债券一直有养老基金的支持,尤其是雇员公积金局(EPF)。
虽然去年因会员可提款,而导致公积金局持有的债券减少,但谭邓肯估计,随着会员缴费率恢复与经济增长强劲前景之下,该局对于长期债券的需求可能会反弹。
根据国行最新数据,养老基金对国债需求已连续3个季度提升;这些机构持有国债,从前年底的2315亿令吉,增加至去年第三季的2435亿令吉。
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