俄乌震波 冲击6大市场
俄乌紧张及美国将升息可能拖慢经济的疑虑,带动黄金价格2月来涨逾5%。
(纽约21日讯)若俄罗斯进犯乌克兰,相关震波将扩及金融市场的每个角落,外电盘点从农产品、能源价格、地区主权美元债券,到债券、黄金等避险资产,都可能受到影响。
●债市与汇市
在重大风险事件中,投资者常涌向被视为最安全资产的债券。尽管通膨高涨迫使多国中行转鹰,已造成回酬窜升、债券价格走跌,但俄乌开战可能改变债市走势。在汇市,长期被视为避险资产的瑞士法郎,1月底攀抵2015年5月以来最高。
●黄金受惠
俄乌紧张及美国将升息可能拖慢经济的疑虑,带动黄金价格2月来涨逾5%,18日更一度涨破每安士1900美元,今年来的报酬率为正值,优于债券与股票,动能指标显示金价后市看俏。
●谷物小麦行情看涨
俄国是全球最大的小麦出口国、乌克兰则是世界第三大玉米出口国及第四大小麦出口国,双方冲突升高,黑海沿岸各港口可能面临军事行动或遭制裁,黑海地区的谷物出口将中断,可能严重冲击谷物价格,进一步加剧粮食通膨。
●天然气和石油续扬
欧洲约有35%天然气依赖俄国,若俄国遭制裁,天然气价格可能重返去年第四季高点。摩根大通说,油价也可能“大幅飙升”,若涨至每桶150美元,将使今年上半年全球经济成长率降至0.9%,通膨率将增加一倍以上至7.2%。
●曝险企业将受累
营收对俄国曝险较高的西方上市公司,可能感受“强烈寒意”,例如英国石油(BP)在俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)持股19.75%,双方还有许多合资企业。金融业的风险集中在欧洲,法国和奥地利银行业对俄贷款最多,各为242亿和172亿美元。
●俄乌债券汇率看跌
军事冲突将使俄乌资产首当其冲,近月来两国的美元债券表现都逊于其他国家,货币汇率也受影响,乌克兰货币格里夫纳是今年迄今表现最差的新兴货币,俄国卢布则排名倒数第五。
https://www.sinchew.com.my/20220221/%E4%BF%84%E4%B9%8C%E9%9C%87%E6%B3%A2-%E5%86%B2%E5%87%BB6%E5%A4%A7%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA/
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