连续三日暴跌,牛市拉警报 | 胡立阳
投资人问:
我的同事不久以前在吉隆坡听了您的演讲,他提到胡老师在那天说了一句“三日暴跌可引起三年衰疲”,很令大家震撼。尤其是像我这种新手,从未经历过可怕的熊市,更应该好好向老师学习经验,以免陷入险境尚不自知、还以为是遇到了检便宜的大好机会。老师,真的有这么可怕吗?
牛市拉警报
当见到指数连续两三天暴跌,而跌幅又在4%一5%之上,绝不可以掉以轻心,要留意这可能就是牛市要变为熊市的转折点。
尤其是,在这三根长阴线的日线图下方,又见到成交量并未明显缩减,往往代表着主导盘势的法人大户在慌忙下车,而观望已久的散户却视为等到机会了,正急着上车。大户丢,散户捡也是行情开始反转所必经之残酷过程。
连番下滑的指数在跌深之后,否极泰来,自然会出现反弹,但这个反弹是带来转机或是仅供“逃命”,就须看它的强度。倘若反弹之后的线形图呈现的是右峰比左峰低的下垂式M字图形,成交量又是每况愈下,那么最常见的空头格局已经俨然成形。
遇上股市急跌,大多数人因措手不及难免都会住进了“套房”,这时请保持冷静,或许还有解套的机会。因为即使是熊市来了,也还是会出现至少一波跌深反弹的“逃命波”。毕竟,直接反转的单峰图形在牛市转熊市的过程中比较少见。
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