股指期货”与“衍生性金融商品”(下) | 胡立阳
了解了“股票选择权”,你也同时懂得了另一项相类似的投资工具—”认股权证”( Warrant)。因为,“认股权证”就是’‘长期”的股票选择权!“认股权证”的到期时间通常都是在一年以上!
物极必反
近年来,不少新兴市场证券金融机构在海外纷纷发行“认股权证”,大玩股票选择权交易游戏。他们从发行单一个股到包含许多个股在内一起计算的所谓“整篮子”认股权证,真是不一而足且花样百出,至于到期时间虽大致都是一年,但发行单位必须于合约途中随时持有现股,以应付投资人可能的兑换要求。
因此,这种游戏对股市所产生的影响来了:当金融机构发行“股票选择权”时,他们必须由市场中买进符合权证换算数鬃的标的股,因而造成该股股价大涨,水确能载舟!但等到合约期满或是股价市价远低于标的价时,既然没有了被要求兑换的可能,为了降低持股风险,他们手中的股票又会倾巢而出,造成股价崩跌,水也能覆舟!
“股票选择权”这个本意颇佳的投资工具在许多新兴股市中仍处萌芽阶段,又在透明化不足的情况下,万一未来发行机构因良芳不齐而出现了手中持股不足的“大冒险家”时,的确会对行情造成波动!
既然如此,今后对于一些常被“选择权”发行机构选中的大型股似乎要重新制定操作策略,那就是:当它们一路上涨时,或许可以继续搭上法人的顺风车,别急着卖;一旦开始出现疲态,要提高警觉,短线少碰为妙。
至于“股指期货”呢?由于它在盘中能及时反映投资人对短线行情的预期,因此,即使是只玩股票的人,也可以加以参考。
我的心得是,在没有实质利空或利多情况下,当股指期货远高于现货(实际指数),也就是出现了1%以上的大幅“正价差”(若指数为5000点,则大约在50点以上),代表市场普遍看多、那么,反而要留意指数随时会发生暴跌,这就是股市中典型的“物极必反”现象。同理,当市场一片悲观,期指“逆价差”越拉越大时,行情出现“否极泰来”的大涨机会就悄悄来临了。
好的,既然想玩输赢立见、风险极高的股指期货,就须认真学习“人弃我取”的操作技巧,并确实遵守“与大多数人背道而驰”的投资铁律!
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