电费没涨市场意外 国家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板公用事业组)补贴缺口存隐忧
(图:马新社)
(吉隆坡27日讯)政府宣布下半年电费保持不变,分析员感到意外,认为国家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板公用事业组)的监管风险升高,下调该股评级和大砍目标价。
兴业研究指出,政府上周五决定维持西马基本电费,即家庭用户每度回扣2仙收费,以及工商业附加费每度3.7仙,国能随后宣布下半年成本转嫁机制(ICPT)保持不变。
“这令我们深感意外,市场原本预期工商业电费将提高,而家庭用户仍然得到补贴。”
该行表示,政府过去一直支持ICPT框架,以确保监管回酬,但保持电费不变,将意味着更高负担,因为燃料价格仍然很高。
“虽然之前的电费补贴获得电力业基金(KWIE)资助,但我们不确定在目前状况下是否会持续。”
兴业表示,国能在2021年下半年的ICPT开销共45亿令吉,今年首季为35亿令吉。假设今年第二季ICPT开销高于首季,过去12个月(2021年7月至今年7月)的ICPT开销可能达到120亿令吉,而国能在今年下半年可向政府索回58亿令吉,还剩24亿令吉有待收回。
若政府补贴不及时
国能现金流受压
因此,如果燃料价格在下半年持续高涨,ICPT应收账款将继续增加。一旦政府无法及时支付补贴,国能的营运现金流将面对更大压力。
“国能首季净负债比为0.8倍,可能透过借贷或发售伊斯兰债券以增加营运资本。”
该行保持财测不变,但认为国能如果再借贷10亿令吉,利率5%,每年融资成本将增加5000万令吉(占2022年盈利的1%)。
不全面转嫁燃料成本
盈利风险增
该行认为,由于国能保持ICPT的监管风险升高,最终可能令奖掖监管机制(IBR)面对挑战。
最坏情况下,可能无法维持ICPT框架。若燃料价格无法全面转嫁给用户,国能具防御性的盈利将面对风险,因此将目标价从11令吉50仙,大砍至8令吉60仙,评级也从“买进”下调至“中和”。
股价写7年新低
国能股价周一滑落,全天急跌19仙或2.32%,以7年最低的8令吉挂收,为表现最差的综指股。
https://www.sinchew.com.my/20220628/%E7%94%B5%E8%B4%B9%E6%B2%A1%E6%B6%A8%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E6%84%8F%E5%A4%96-%E5%9B%BD%E8%83%BD%E8%A1%A5%E8%B4%B4%E7%BC%BA%E5%8F%A3%E5%AD%98%E9%9A%90%E5%BF%A7/
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