“最惨烈情况还未到来” 顶尖股票经理持45%现金
(纽约23日讯)杰夫·米伦坎普的2.75亿美元基金中近一半是现金,他预计,在股市再次看起来有吸引力之前,会先变得糟糕很多。
美国股市今年损失12兆美元,但总部位于宾夕法尼亚州韦克斯福德的Muhlenkamp Fund (在过去三年中击败了97%的同行)一直处于观望状态,要等到新一波的市场错位在华尔街创造出“不可理喻的价格”才会出手。
56岁的米伦坎普说,他预期世界各地有些东西将会崩溃,而且会严重到足以引起美联储的注意。他在2008年金融危机高点开启自己的专业投资职业生涯。
他表示,想成为一个握有现金且能挑三拣四的人,一旦有人得不计价格出售资产时,就可以利用这个千载难逢的机会。
米伦坎普的绩效超越越来越多的资产管理公司,后者现在已经接受了这样一个事实:美联储和全球同行在对抗通货膨胀上是动真格的。
鲍威尔周三明确表示,在美联储连续第三次加息75个基点后,他预计美国经济将放缓。周四,许多其他央行也纷纷效仿。这使得现金成为投资者的投资组合中越来越重要的组成部分。
自2021年夏季以来,在出售了苹果和微软的大部分持股并有新的资金流入后,米伦坎普的现金高达总资产的45%,形成坚实的防御网。通常,该基金仅将2%至3%的资金以现金形式配置。
米伦坎普说,金融系统中还有这么多杠杆,他判断,投资者越来越可能被迫平仓以满足一些追加保证金的要求。那就是他介入的时刻——当市场变得非理性地创造出与基本面不一致的价格时。
这位前美国陆军中校表示,如果美联储出手拯救市场,届时他会将资金重新投入股市。就目前而言,在该央行刚刚祭出另一次历史性加息之后,这看起来遥不可及。
对米伦坎普来说,这正是危险所在。失业率飙升、借贷成本飙升、国债市场受到干扰,或者其他国家因美元走强而陷入困境 ,这些都是美联储加大力度对抗通胀下潜在的不祥后果。
https://www.enanyang.my/%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E8%B4%A2%E7%BB%8F/%E2%80%9C%E6%9C%80%E6%83%A8%E7%83%88%E6%83%85%E5%86%B5%E8%BF%98%E6%9C%AA%E5%88%B0%E6%9D%A5%E2%80%9D-%E9%A1%B6%E5%B0%96%E8%82%A1%E7%A5%A8%E7%BB%8F%E7%90%86%E6%8C%8145%E7%8E%B0%E9%87%91
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