悲观情绪爆发 全球现金为王
货币 汇率
(纽约23日讯)美国银行策略师表示,投资者纷纷投奔现金,几乎避开了其他所有资产类别,转向全球金融危机以来最悲观态度。
美国银行在报告中援引EPFR环球的数据称,截至9月21日当周,有303亿美元(约1384.7亿令吉)流入现金,全球股票基金资金流出78亿美元(约356.5亿令吉)。
数据显示,债券基金资金流出69亿美元(约315亿令吉),黄金则流出4亿美元(约18亿令吉)。
迈克尔·哈奈特等策略师在报告中写道,投资者信心“毫无疑问”处于2008年危机以来最糟糕状态,政府债券跌幅创下1920年以来最大。
他们认为,现金、大宗商品和波动率将继续跑赢债券和股票,美国银行的传统多头和空头指标回到最高看跌水平。
有迹象显示即便激进加息会导致经济陷入衰退,美联储收紧货币政策的决心不会动摇,因此围绕通胀和利率上升的担忧本周加深。
全球风险资产再度陷入动荡,标普500指数势将在6周以来第5周下跌,并且接近抹去夏季在强于预期的财报季之后取得的涨幅。
美国股市料续跌
迈克尔·哈奈特预计,随着金融环境收紧,地缘政治风险上升以及全球增长前景黯淡,估值面临压力,美国股市将进一步下跌。
他对企业盈利的预测显示,标普500指数将在3300至3500点之间波动,比当前水平至少低7%。
高盛策略师下调标普500指数年底目标,同时警告称,加息前景的明显变化将对估值构成压力。
根据美国银行的报告,在欧洲,股票基金连续第32周出现资金流出。
从交易风格来看,美国大型股有资金流入,价值股、成长股和小型股都出现资金流出。
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