人民币快破7 大马等新兴市场不妙
(北京6日综合电)联储局加快升息脚步,使得美元持续走强冲破110大关,亚洲主要货币面临贬值压力,美国财经媒体指出,随著世界第二大经济体中国经济失去动力,人民币已跌至两年低点,除了会波及中国周边国家外,更将打击新兴国家的出口吸引力,连带冲击新兴货币甚至是非洲、拉丁美洲的货币走势,也令人担忧是否会重演1998年亚洲金融风暴。
根据报道,在过去几个月,人民币走势相对抗贬,其作为新兴市场的避险天堂一度享受著“至高无上”的地位,可帮助投资者躲避战争的动荡和通膨的失控,如今却变成新兴市场一大威胁。
北欧斯安银行(SEB)首席新兴市场策略师哈玛伦德(Per Hammarlund)表示,预期人民币将进一步走弱,其他新兴市场货币也将面临下行压力,尤其在出口方面与中国直接竞争的国家,将会受到最大的影响。
根据报道,人民币已连续第六个月下跌,创下2018年10月中美贸易战以来的最长连跌纪录,包括法国兴业银行、野村、美银在内的银行皆表示,人民币兑美元可能贬破7的心理关卡。
值得注意的是,人民币贬值对新兴市场产生更广泛的影响,高盛和法国兴业银行则指出,人民币贬值包括新台币、韩元以及大马、南非、墨西哥、泰国等国货币皆会受到冲击。
法兴银行研究主管卡伦(Phoenix Kalen)说,在过去10年内,中国和其他新兴市场的贸易和金融联系明显增加,使人民币与全球新兴市场货币脱钩的情况变得更加困难。
https://www.sinchew.com.my/20220906/%E4%BA%BA%E6%B0%91%E5%B9%A3%E5%BF%AB%E7%A0%B47/
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