股市低迷的另類指標
網誌分類:股票經
網誌日期:2022-09-12
上星期,收到亮光文化出版社2022年上半年的版稅,「收入」跟我預期一樣的「低」呢!我想銷售欠佳除了受到疫情的影響外,主要原因是市場大眾對投資書籍的興趣大減,這可算是一個另類股票市場探熱針。
今年以來,港股受到眾多不明朗的因素困擾------疫情、俄烏戰事、通脹威脅、加息、經濟衰退、內房債危機、科網監管等,導致投資氣氛暗淡,成交薄弱。恆生指數由年初至今已經下跌了17%,股民輸多贏少,或許開始懷疑究竟股市是否騙人的場所,自然對股市及投資書提不起勁,不願意積極學習正確的投資方法和技巧。
我相信股市是有周期的,但熊市何時結束?股市何時才會見底回升?我沒有水晶球,只能像曹仁超先生說句「木宰羊」。我只知道,假如投資者錯過了市場見底回升的幾天,回報率也許將會大打折扣,這是企圖捕捉市場最低點的弊病。我認為要評估大市是否便宜的良好訊號,是觀察市場上是否存在許多估值便宜的股票。只要買得便宜,相信已經封了一半蝕本門,不必強求買到最低點。
當看見越來越多投資者對港股心淡時,我反而思考這是否一個買入訊號。倘若羊群都向同一方向走的時候,價值投資者是否有勇氣和睿智往反方向走呢!
https://bennychungwai.blogspot.com/2022/09/blog-post.html
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