路透社:国行明日料宣布升息25基点至3%
(吉隆坡18日讯)《路透社》调查显示,国家银行将在明天货币政策会议结束后,宣布升息25基点至3%,以便抑制高通胀与扶持令吉。这也将是国行连续第5次上调隔夜政策利率(OPR)。
国行是去年5月最早升息的亚洲央行之一,至今累计升息100个基点,但并未有效抑制通胀走高。11月通胀率为4%。
根据《路透社》市场预测调查显示,今年通胀率平均为3%,高于去年10月时预测的2.8%。
尽管收紧货币政策的步伐比其他央行缓慢,但国行总裁丹斯里诺珊希雅近期表示,是否升息取决于不断变化的市场形势,对经济增长和通胀前景的影响。
《路透社》市场调查显示,27位受访的经济学家当中,有26人预计国行将在明天升息,上调至疫情之前的3%水平。只有1人认为利率保持不变。
虽然绝大多数受访经济学家(24人中的13人)预计3月底的利率仍会维持在3%,但其中10人的预测为3.25%。
此外,当中将近60%的经济学家(24人的13人)预计到6月底利率将达到3.25%或更高,比去年11月的民意调查高出25个百分点。
不过,经济学家对今年的利率在2.75%至3.50%的范围内存在分歧。
作为石油净出口国,我国经济增长前景因中国(我国最大的贸易伙伴)和世界其他地区的经济放缓而蒙上阴影。预计今年经济将增长4.0%,2024年将增长4.5%,符合政府4.0%至5.0%的预测。
另一方面,渣打银行预计,国行明天将把OPR上调25个基点至3%,回到疫情前水平。
该行指出,假设政府宣布下半年调整津贴,预计国行在1月升息之后,在3月会暂停升息,然后在5月再次升息25个基点。
“如果仅取消20%的RON95汽油用户所享有的补贴,估计总体通胀率仅会按年增长0.9%。”
https://www.orientaldaily.com.my/news/business/2023/01/18/540993
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