2023年开了个好年 1月组合开始好转
还记得我在1月头时,总结了2022年的血泪亏钱史,有兴趣的朋友可以翻回之前的文章。
正当我还在苦恼该怎么翻身时,美股在1月迎来了大反弹,纳斯达克YTD 15.6%,许多个股反弹幅度更是惊人,像是我最大持股TSLA YTD 75.75%,还有NVIDIA YTD也涨了45%等等,可以用群魔乱舞来形容。
我个人的组合YTD也回血了11.32%,以1月份来看,是过去几年表现最好的一次。去年我大亏30%,需要回血40%,才能回到资产数额的高点,因此前路依然艰辛。随着组合回血,现金比例也下滑至32%。
可能你会疑问说,TSLA上涨这么多,为何组合只是回血这么少,是的因为我本身并没有在底部继续捞,而是选择按兵不动。记得最后一次加码的位置是150。加上组合还是有分散投资,并不是重仓到完。
其实,当TSLA跌到100时,我已经拟定捞底计划。该计划是在100以下的加码计划,殊不知计划赶不上变化。TSLA触碰到100后,在1月份开启了凌厉的反弹走势,让我错过了底部加码的机会。
但也没关系,反正涨是好事,我不会因为没加码到而懊恼,反而应该感到开心,毕竟我有70%的持股在市场中,整段上涨是吃完的。
检视下最近的反弹,其实蛮无解的,主要是因为基本面并没有太大的改变,如果硬要说的话,就是美联储升息的预期几乎到顶了,接下来可能还会升1-2次,然后就停止。经济层面上,劳动力市场依然强劲,然后许多经济数据也保持强劲,像是ISM服务业采购经理人指数止跌回升,美国汽车销售总量业开始止跌回升,失业率3.4%,让市场开始怀疑到底经济还要不要衰退。
前天,也看到推特上由人分享,美股迎来有史以来选择权交易量最大的一天,那天NASDAQ也跳空上涨了不少,显示有一波杠杆空军的平仓回补。这波反弹,也把空军尬到天上去。
展望2月份,过了FOMC会议和大科技的财报,不排除股市在经历大幅反弹后,开始部分短线操作的获利了结。在美联储即将暂停加息的背景下,加上普遍预期企业盈利持续恶化,我觉得坏消息也许已经出尽,而股市也正在提前6个月反应。因此我会根据情况,将10%的现金部位,在回调时,找机会按比例加码。
https://mrgelee69.blogspot.com/2023/02/2023-1.html
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