价量背离的三种基本形态
作者:胡立阳
投资人问:
我一直到最近才听到“价量背离”这个名词,但猜得出它指的是成交量与股价之间没搭配好,需要注意。真的是这样的吗?能请老师进一步说明吗?
技术分析总是强调,股价与成交量之间应有良性的互动关系,例如:“价涨量增”、“价跌量缩”就是完美的搭配。
相反的,如果出现了以下三种状况,就是典型的价量背离了:
(1) 价涨量缩
股价不断创新高,但成交量却越来越少,技术分析迷当然不喜欢看到这种现象。
一般而言,最大的成交量和最高的股价并不会同时出现,比较常见的是量领先于价。量走不动了,后面的价也就跑不远了。
股票涨幅日渐缩小,成交量又每况愈下,是股票接近高点的明显迹象我过去做过统计,飙升中的个股如果遇上这种价量背离的走势持续了2.77天(接近3天),持股信心就会开始动摇,股价随量下滑的几率大增。
指数连续3天创新,而成交量却依次递减相当不妙
(2) 价跌量增
这是技术分析中的大忌,表示股价仍处在恐慌性下跌的阶段。
由于成交量提前反映股价的走势,在出现量缩之前,股价还会动荡不安。
(3) 价平量增
这其实才是最麻烦也最常见的情况。
股市正处于狂热,某只个股成交量也随之疯狂增加,但股价却突然毫无动静,这种“落花有意,流水无情”的情形,若持续发生2.13天,也是股价近顶的讯号。
接着,必定有人会问:“股价已经下跌了一阵子,未来在底部来临前,是否也会出现先期讯号?”
这是很重要的问题!
股价下跌趋缓,或是已经像睡着了一样,成交量也跟着出现了“窒息”状况,这是在说,否极泰来的机会就要来临了。
“窒息量”的定义通常是指突然出现只有过去月平均量的二分之一甚至三分之一的超小量,这代表浮额已经过彻底地清洗,股价的触底反弹时机就近在眼前了。
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