著名投资者警告 美股“超级泡沫”尚未破裂
美股 华尔街
(纽约1日讯)知名投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆表示,今年美国股市虽然动荡,但他之前警告过的“超级泡沫”尚未破裂。
这位波士顿资产管理公司GMO的联合创始人,周三在报告中表示,美国股市自6月中旬到8月中旬大涨,符合起先急剧下跌然后出现熊市上涨的模式,之后经济会真正开始恶化。
杰里米·格兰瑟姆预计由于股票估值过高、债券和房地产三者的“危险组合”,以及大宗商品冲击和美联储鹰派立场等因素,未来会麻烦不断。
他年初时预测,美国基准股指将在历史性崩盘中暴跌近50%。标普500指数6月份一度较1月份高点下跌近25%,随后两个月又逐渐回升。
然而,美国股市再度暴跌,周三时连续第四天下跌,摩根史丹利知名策略师迈克·威尔逊等人提醒投资者,市场尚未触底。
“前阵子是典型的熊市上涨,人们却说是新的牛市行情,”杰里米·格兰瑟姆在接受采访时说“这是胡说八道。”
在杰里米·格兰瑟姆看来,超级泡沫的破裂分几个阶段。首先,像上半年一样遭遇挫折,然后略有反弹,最后基本面崩溃,市场来到低谷。
杰里米·格兰瑟姆曾指出1980年代末期日本股市、2000年互联网股票以及2008年金融危机前美国房地产市场的泡沫,使其名声大噪。这些年来他的其他看衰预测没有成真,或者至少为时过早。
这一次他提到了近期出现的问题,如俄乌战争对欧洲的影响、财政紧缩和中国持续抗疫等方面。
虽然通胀上升造成上半年市场下跌,但他表示企业利润率下降将引发下一轮下跌行情。
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