有触底迹象 马股现买入良机?
马股 股市
(吉隆坡30日讯)近期马股走势疲软,但丰隆投行研究认为,马股已经出现触底的迹象,因而建议投资者趁低买进,以从很可能在12月出现的橱窗粉饰活动中获利。
丰隆投行研究分析员指出,由于全球经济前景不明朗,马股如今的估值相当脆弱,不幸中的大幸是,部分迹象显示马股或已触底,形成趁低买进的机会。
“传统上马股在12月会出现橱窗粉饰活动,我们认为,投资者可趁着当前的股价弱势,战略性少量买入。”
分析员称,目前富时大马综合指数的股价对账面价值比率,已经比历史平均值低2个标准差,是个衡量马股估值是否触底的不错指标。
他同时表示,外资持有马股的比率,截至8月底已降至历史新低的20.1%。
此外,该分析员称,自上一轮全球金融危机以来,综指几乎每一年在12月都交出正回酬表现,展现橱窗粉饰的效应。
“在过去12年里,综指在其中11年的12月份,都交出正回酬表现,相当于92%的几率。”
整体而言,该分析员认为,经济可能放慢成长,加上美联储的激进升息,皆对马股造成负面冲击。
“虽然大马国内生产总值(GDP)仍能在第3季保持强劲增长,但今年末季应会随着低基数效应的消失,以及外部需求减弱而放慢增长。”
在不考虑全球经济陷入衰退的情况下,分析员预测,明年大马GDP增长将放慢到4.5%,今年预测为增长6.5%。
丰隆投行研究首选股
马美利差冲击综指
此外,他表示,随着美联储有意在今年杪将美国基准利率提高到4.4%,美国利率和大马隔夜政策利率(OPR)的差值,可能在年尾进一步扩大到190个基点。
“一般来说,美国和大马利率差值扩大对综指走势不利,两者之间存在-58.5%的负相关性。”
在不确定因素的影响下,该分析员将综指今年年杪目标下调,从1560点降至1540点,本益比为15.5倍。
他也根据同样的预估本益比,将2023年综指年杪目标设定在1590点。
https://www.enanyang.my/%E8%B4%A2%E7%BB%8F%E6%96%B0%E9%97%BB/%E6%9C%89%E8%A7%A6%E5%BA%95%E8%BF%B9%E8%B1%A1-%E9%A9%AC%E8%82%A1%E7%8E%B0%E4%B9%B0%E5%85%A5%E8%89%AF%E6%9C%BA%EF%BC%9F
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