高盛:原油闲置产能耗尽 油价今年料再破100美元
(沙地阿拉伯‧利雅得6日讯)高盛大宗商品研究主管认为,随著闲置产能耗尽,今年5月石油市场就可能出现供不应求的局面。
大宗商品旗手高盛最新预测称,今年油价将回升至每桶100美元以上,随著闲置产能耗尽,2024年可能面临严重的供应问题。
高盛大宗商品研究主管Jeff Currie在沙地阿拉伯利雅得举行的一次会议间隙表示,西方的制裁可能导致俄罗斯石油出口下降,而随著中国石油需求回升,油价将从目前每桶80美元左右的水平上涨至每桶100美元以上。
此外,Currie认为,石油生产方面的投资不足也将导致供应难以满足需求,这是推动油价重回高位的另一个重要因素。他表示,虽然目前石油贸易仍处于平衡状态,但到今年晚些时候,当需求超过供应时,产能可能会成为一个问题。
“我们会耗尽闲置产能吗?可能到2024年,你就会遇到一个严重的问题。”
Currie表示:“大宗商品超级周期是一系列价格飙升的过程,高点更高,低点也更高。”
他认为,石油市场在5月份应该会出现供不应求的局面,而这可能会耗尽全球生产商的大部份闲置产能,进一步对油价产生积极影响。
https://www.sinchew.com.my/20230206/%E9%AB%98%E7%9B%9B%EF%BC%9A%E5%8E%9F%E6%B2%B9%E9%97%B2%E7%BD%AE%E4%BA%A7%E8%83%BD%E8%80%97%E5%B0%BD-%E6%B2%B9%E4%BB%B7%E4%BB%8A%E5%B9%B4%E6%96%99%E5%86%8D%E7%A0%B4100%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83/
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